A New Landscape, But On Old Ground: Harris v. Trump
There is every possibility that Joe Biden would have been able to beat Donald Trump. His miserable performance in the debate made that outcome less definite to be sure, but it did not erase the possibility entirely. Prior to the debate, my certain prediction was that Trump would lose. After the debate I was less certain, but still confident in the reasoning behind the call. With Biden now having fallen on his sacrificial ego, I am back to being confident in a Trump loss. The dynamics have definitely changed and the reasons for and against are not quite the same as they were before, but by and large I think Trump’s time in the limelight has come to an end.
Remember that in 2020, nobody really wanted Joe Biden to be president. There was no quick pivot by the party as when Obama had run. There was no tide of popular acclaim surging him past the other contenders. The electorate had already seen Bernie Sanders, and since he wasn’t really bringing anything new his spotlight faded predictably soonest. Elizabeth Warren was the next possibility, but she predictably faded when her politics became a little too gender-centric. Good old Joe was just next.
Between familiarity and timing, and the convenience of a common enemy, 2020 was the story of a moderate middle saying “meh” to Joe Biden and “oh hell no” to Donald Trump. Had election season run just a little bit longer, we could have easily cycled along to a different candidate.
This absence of popular acclaim for Joe Biden in 2020 was perhaps going to be his greatest asset going into 2024. He had already established that he did not need to be a rockstar; he did not need to be John Kennedy or even Bill Clinton. He just had to not be Donald Trump. Fortunately for him, four years later he was still just Joe Biden.
The Left’s big tent in 2020 included a recordable percentage of traditionally Right-leaning voters who had switched sides to make a point. That point is still being argued, so President Biden was always going to be able to count on a cushion unavailable to previous Democrats, and not captured by most polls. Conversely, the Right’s big tent in 2020 included a great many senior citizens who are now dead. Trump’s own policies unleashed the worst of a virus on his most virulent demographic. When you’re talking about a disease that killed more seniors than there were GIs killed in Germany and Vietnam combined, and an age group with enough wealth and bitterness to carry an almost 10-point lean towards the right, you’re talking about Donald Trump being an accessory to the manslaughter of his own re-elect.
And so even with the addition of a Court that is (to be perfectly honest) far more corrupt than I had anticipated, Donald Trump is still Donald Trump. He was always going to be a damaged candidate, and the damage he has done to his own electorate has only served to reduce their numbers below their already losing margins from 2020.
Kamala Harris is on the other hand definitely not Joe Biden. Politically, she may be a little bit more like Joe Biden then a lot of the further-Left would like. If she couldn’t easily play the part of a safe politician, she never would have been selected as Biden’s running mate in the first place. Beyond politics (though only temporarily) she looks a lot less like Joe Biden than pretty much anyone else on the stage at the moment. She is younger, she is a she, she is not white. Just by virtue of being who she is, she brings something to the ticket that Joe Biden failed to provide. Something for Democrats to get excited about.
Getting back to politics, the dynamics of how that happens is already beginning to play out. While her advantage to the Left is very much about her not being an old white man, her weakness to the Right is very much about her being a Black woman. When Hillary ran she did so with the overwhelming support of Black women. There are Hillary voters who won’t vote for Kamala because she’s not white. There are ambivalent Trump voters who might otherwise stay home, who could be motivated by their own racism or misogyny back to the polls. Barack Osama was bad enough!
But these circumstances are nothing new, and history has demonstrated that they can be overcome. The racism of the right has been turned back twice already in this century. Their need to control women was outvoted by millions in 2016.
There is a vulnerability to experience-based attacks that would receive a sympathetic audience. Voters are more inclined to favor governors over senators due to the executive experience provided. Harris brings little of that executive leadership to the ticket. On the other hand, Donald Trump is a buffoon and his running mate lacks executive function, so Harris’ vulnerability there is offset considerably.
James Carville is on MSNBC deriding the establishment falling behind Harris as akin to a coronation; he perhaps would prefer a more open scramble for the seat at the table. That’s a fair complaint- as good as Harris might be for this moment, maybe there’s a better candidate out there for the job. His want for attention though does illustrate that the Party is taking determined steps towards being a unified and motivated and principled institution again. Trump’s strength is as a disruptor, he believes himself to the the Irresistible Force in the room. Faced up against an Immovable Body, he’s just some guy yelling about walls.
Specific to the present and 2024 expectations (looking right at Mr Vance here), abortion and women’s rights remain amongst the strongest drivers of voting behaviors. Tide-turning turnout in Kansas and Arizona demonstrate the viability of a motivated Democratic electorate. Kamala Harris may have different vulnerabilities than Joe Biden did, and Trump’s means to exploit those vulnerabilities will have varying mileage. What Trump will be unable to counter, will be the ability to tap into the enthusiasm of those activists (and the contagious effect of their cheerleading) provided by her name being at the top of the ticket.
Between the momentum from the principled-ish Right that was always going to be propelling the Left, and the enthusiasm of a Left that’s not forced to vote for a Night at the Museum anymore, the odds of a President Kamala Harris become very reasonable.
About The Author
davetwsprocket
Dave didn't get the memo until, like, just now. He is capable with arranging words, but only just getting started at getting those words to actually do anything. He is motivated by a disrespect for authority, and towards finally doing what's right. He's good with people, but that's a learned skill- his natural inclination is to be far, far away. He's a Leo.